LBNL

Category 6 tropical cyclones

The Growing Inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir-Simpson Hurricane-Wind Scale in a Warming World

Michael F. Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

James P. Kossin, First Street Foundation & The University of Wisconsin-Madison

Figure1a
Figure 1a from our paper showing the five recent storms that reached our hypothetical category 6 wind-intensity.

This page presents data behind our PNAS paper exploring the rationale for adding a sixth category to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. See section 5 of the paper for more details of the materials and methods.

Michael F. Wehner, James P. Kossin (2023) The Growing Inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir-Simpson Hurricane-Wind Scale in a Warming World. The Proceedings of the National Academies. XXX (xx) XX-XX https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2308901121 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2308901121

DATA DOWNLOAD INFORMATION

Section 1 Recent extreme maximum wind speeds in observed storms:

  • Observed tropical cyclone wind speeds are from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and obtainable at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs

    • Section 2 Detection, attribution and projection of changes in Potential Intensity:

  • Potential Intensity (PI) was calculated using Professor Kerry Emanuel’s Fortran code without modification ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/TCMAX/ibtracs

  • tarball containing ERA 5 historical daily PI

  • tarball containing ERA 5 GWL15 daily PI

  • tarball containing ERA 5 GWL20 daily PI

  • tarball containing ERA 5 GWL30 daily PI

  • tarball containing ERA 5 GWL40 daily PI

    • Note: These data files are large and on tape. It will take a while to mount the tape and even longer to read it.

    Section 3 Changes in maximum wind speeds of tropical cyclone permitting climate model simulations:

  • CAM5 tropical cyclone peak wind speeds from the TECA TC tracker are provided in this spreadsheet, CAM5_peak_winds.xlsx

    The complete high resolution CAM5 data is available at the data portal link at https://portal.nersc.gov/c20c

  • MRI-AGCM3.2 results were inferred from figure 7 of Murakami et al. Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by the New High-Resolution MRI-AGCM. J. Clim. 25, 3237–3260 (2012)

  • HiFLOR results were inferred from figure 11 of Bhatia et al. Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Nat. Commun. 10, 1–9 (2019).

    • Report broken links or other problems to Michael Wehner, LBNL mfwehner@lbl.gov
    MFW was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE340AC02-05CH11231 under the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) program. This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. While this document is believed to contain correct information, neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor the Regents of the University of California, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by its trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or the Regents of the University of California. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof or the Regents of the University of California.

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