Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Model(s) ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina SAM SAM PSA1 PSA1 PSA2 PSA2 TPDV SO SO SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (NDJFMA) (MJJASO) (NDJFMA) (MJJASO) (NDJFMA) (MJJASO) (Monthly) (NDJFMA) (MJJASO) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ERA5-ENS #1 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.03 1.00/0.00 1.00/0.00 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.03 0.98/0.11 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 0.92/0.07 1.00/0.06 ERA5-ENS #2 0.98/0.14 0.99/0.35 0.94/0.12 0.98/0.08 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 0.98/0.10 1.00/0.05 0.98/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 0.97/0.03 0.92/0.07 1.00/0.13 ERA5-ENS #3 0.99/0.09 1.00/0.04 0.96/0.08 0.97/0.10 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 0.97/0.12 1.00/0.05 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 0.97/0.03 0.92/0.08 1.00/0.11 ERA5-ENS #4 0.98/0.13 1.00/0.21 0.93/0.11 0.98/0.09 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.03 0.98/0.11 1.00/0.05 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 0.97/0.03 0.92/0.07 1.00/0.12 ERA5-ENS #5 0.99/0.10 1.00/0.04 0.96/0.10 0.98/0.08 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 0.96/0.14 1.00/0.05 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 0.97/0.03 0.92/0.07 1.00/0.12 ERA5-ENS #6 0.96/0.20 0.98/0.69 0.85/0.16 0.96/0.10 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 0.97/0.12 1.00/0.05 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 0.98/0.03 0.92/0.07 0.99/0.16 ERA5-ENS #7 0.98/0.14 0.99/0.35 0.91/0.12 0.97/0.09 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.03 0.98/0.11 1.00/0.05 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 0.97/0.03 0.92/0.07 1.00/0.13 ERA5-ENS #8 0.99/0.10 1.00/0.04 0.95/0.09 0.96/0.10 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 0.97/0.12 1.00/0.05 0.98/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 0.97/0.03 0.92/0.08 1.00/0.12 ERA5-ENS #9 0.98/0.14 0.99/0.38 0.95/0.10 0.97/0.09 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 0.97/0.12 1.00/0.05 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 0.97/0.03 0.92/0.07 0.99/0.13 ERA5-ENS #10 0.95/0.21 0.97/0.61 0.86/0.16 0.93/0.14 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 0.97/0.12 1.00/0.05 0.98/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 0.97/0.03 0.92/0.07 0.99/0.16 CMIP6-COUP #1 0.68/0.56 0.89/1.23 0.77/0.28 0.72/0.32 0.92/0.40 0.92/0.48 -0.15/0.84 0.77/0.56 -0.29/0.77 0.71/0.56 0.29/0.13 0.91/0.28 0.91/0.28 0.66/0.08 0.88/0.09 0.74/0.73 CMIP6-COUP #2 0.69/0.62 0.82/1.70 0.72/0.50 0.73/0.84 0.93/0.40 0.90/0.55 0.70/0.58 0.90/0.45 0.24/0.64 0.74/0.54 0.63/0.10 0.87/0.42 0.87/0.42 0.58/0.10 0.88/0.12 0.79/0.84 CMIP6-COUP #3 0.66/0.59 0.79/1.89 0.79/0.71 0.47/0.65 0.85/0.64 0.91/0.52 -0.44/0.98 -0.53/1.44 0.46/0.55 -0.55/1.21 0.66/0.16 0.85/0.46 0.85/0.46 0.58/0.10 0.88/0.11 0.60/1.10 CMIP6-COUP #4 0.68/0.56 0.89/1.32 0.81/0.60 0.66/0.38 0.94/0.42 0.90/0.56 0.63/0.59 -0.76/1.66 0.74/0.37 -0.64/1.32 0.43/0.12 0.89/0.41 0.89/0.41 0.57/0.09 0.89/0.10 0.69/0.92 CMIP6-COUP #5 0.67/0.57 0.54/2.26 0.79/0.45 0.76/0.30 0.87/0.60 0.64/1.03 -0.49/1.23 -0.86/1.84 -0.51/0.95 0.64/0.77 0.56/0.14 0.73/0.56 0.73/0.56 0.50/0.11 0.89/0.11 0.51/1.11 CMIP6-COUP #6 0.72/0.59 0.83/1.64 0.76/0.48 0.69/0.45 0.97/0.51 0.56/1.13 0.62/0.60 0.57/0.83 0.62/0.48 0.82/0.41 0.50/0.14 0.91/0.40 0.91/0.40 0.53/0.11 0.88/0.12 0.77/0.84 CMIP6-COUP #7 0.65/0.69 0.79/1.79 0.82/0.77 0.71/0.73 0.73/0.76 0.86/0.78 0.57/0.60 -0.25/1.44 0.56/0.58 -0.27/1.23 0.69/0.13 0.86/0.54 0.86/0.54 0.54/0.12 0.89/0.12 0.67/1.12 CMIP6-COUP #8 0.58/0.58 0.12/2.94 0.77/0.61 0.53/0.70 0.93/0.39 0.93/0.51 0.68/0.55 -0.75/1.69 0.71/0.35 0.72/0.55 0.64/0.13 0.78/0.46 0.78/0.46 0.54/0.10 0.89/0.10 0.67/0.95 CMIP6-COUP #9 0.43/0.64 0.51/2.20 0.29/0.45 0.76/0.29 0.88/0.46 0.90/0.59 0.65/0.46 0.22/1.06 0.42/0.47 0.19/0.87 0.67/0.11 0.70/0.46 0.70/0.46 0.56/0.09 0.88/0.09 0.64/0.82 CMIP6-COUP #10 0.61/0.57 0.33/2.62 0.62/0.40 0.63/0.43 0.91/0.54 0.90/0.59 0.66/0.56 -0.30/1.40 0.59/0.42 -0.34/1.21 0.38/0.14 0.84/0.40 0.84/0.40 0.56/0.09 0.90/0.09 0.64/0.91 CMIP6-COUP #11 0.62/0.61 0.88/1.48 0.74/0.71 0.55/0.74 0.87/0.53 0.89/0.68 -0.55/1.13 -0.76/1.77 0.61/0.42 0.44/0.72 0.57/0.16 0.87/0.44 0.87/0.44 0.52/0.10 0.88/0.12 0.63/1.08 CMIP6-COUP #12 0.60/0.61 0.85/1.51 0.73/0.54 0.66/0.81 0.92/0.40 0.65/1.03 0.73/0.54 0.60/0.79 0.55/0.45 0.71/0.63 0.58/0.15 0.88/0.41 0.88/0.41 0.57/0.10 0.90/0.11 0.75/0.90 CMIP6-COUP #13 0.57/0.70 0.77/2.06 0.56/0.56 0.67/0.45 0.93/0.83 0.89/0.98 0.40/0.67 -0.61/1.50 0.43/0.54 0.60/0.64 0.55/0.10 0.79/0.58 0.79/0.58 0.51/0.12 0.84/0.10 0.65/0.99 CMIP6-COUP #14 0.40/0.66 -0.08/3.02 0.48/0.46 0.79/0.34 0.88/0.51 0.90/0.61 0.45/0.64 0.58/0.77 0.45/0.45 0.53/0.65 0.46/0.10 0.46/0.58 0.46/0.58 0.46/0.11 0.86/0.10 0.60/0.86 CMIP6-COUP #15 0.54/0.68 0.81/2.10 0.51/0.68 0.71/0.39 0.93/0.49 0.91/0.77 0.60/0.54 0.19/1.03 0.40/0.53 0.25/0.83 0.58/0.12 0.84/0.41 0.84/0.41 0.42/0.12 0.84/0.10 0.69/0.92 CMIP6-COUP #16 0.65/0.52 0.77/1.58 0.60/0.43 0.78/0.50 0.93/0.56 0.88/0.78 0.48/0.56 0.67/0.68 0.24/0.54 0.62/0.60 0.75/0.07 0.75/0.42 0.75/0.42 0.45/0.11 0.82/0.11 0.72/0.78 CMIP6-COUP #17 0.64/0.54 0.81/1.45 0.71/0.39 0.79/0.29 0.95/0.39 0.88/0.64 0.47/0.59 -0.19/1.20 0.25/0.60 0.57/0.65 0.73/0.10 0.90/0.28 0.90/0.28 0.35/0.12 0.84/0.10 0.72/0.77 CMIP6-COUP #18 0.65/0.56 0.80/1.48 0.54/0.52 0.79/0.55 0.93/0.76 0.94/0.60 0.63/0.56 0.71/0.69 -0.10/0.67 0.77/0.54 0.70/0.14 0.89/0.34 0.89/0.34 0.52/0.13 0.87/0.09 0.76/0.85 CMIP6-COUP #19 0.62/0.52 0.57/2.06 0.68/0.37 0.70/0.36 0.94/0.71 0.92/0.71 0.58/0.58 0.39/0.94 -0.36/0.69 0.29/0.85 0.45/0.11 0.88/0.31 0.88/0.31 0.41/0.12 0.82/0.11 0.67/0.83 CMIP6-COUP #20 0.57/0.56 0.38/2.33 0.64/0.41 0.64/0.55 0.90/0.68 0.90/0.80 -0.37/0.96 0.64/0.70 0.41/0.49 0.60/0.61 0.66/0.12 0.85/0.35 0.85/0.35 0.43/0.12 0.83/0.10 0.66/0.88 CMIP6-COUP #21 0.65/0.61 0.86/1.31 0.72/0.51 0.82/0.62 0.94/0.78 0.92/0.70 0.61/0.49 0.36/1.02 -0.03/0.65 0.49/0.67 0.74/0.12 0.88/0.46 0.88/0.46 0.51/0.12 0.84/0.10 0.75/0.91 CMIP6-COUP #22 0.64/0.58 0.54/2.16 0.44/0.65 0.78/0.54 0.93/0.55 0.88/0.72 0.55/0.64 0.79/0.56 0.56/0.46 0.74/0.48 0.73/0.09 0.77/0.46 0.77/0.46 0.50/0.12 0.86/0.10 0.73/0.85 CMIP6-COUP #23 0.67/0.53 0.78/1.59 0.14/0.47 0.70/0.35 0.94/0.52 0.94/0.53 0.43/0.65 0.81/0.53 0.58/0.42 0.01/0.93 0.85/0.10 0.84/0.39 0.84/0.39 0.60/0.10 0.81/0.11 0.73/0.78 CMIP6-COUP #24 0.57/0.57 0.65/1.92 0.20/0.49 0.72/0.40 0.94/0.42 0.94/0.50 -0.65/0.94 0.60/0.73 -0.19/0.71 -0.09/0.95 0.71/0.08 0.85/0.36 0.85/0.36 0.53/0.11 0.83/0.10 0.62/0.87 CMIP6-COUP #25 0.60/0.58 0.74/1.65 0.14/0.48 0.71/0.37 0.94/0.82 0.92/0.48 0.49/0.63 0.72/0.65 0.70/0.36 0.68/0.50 0.79/0.16 0.83/0.37 0.83/0.37 0.59/0.11 0.81/0.11 0.74/0.79 CMIP6-COUP #26 0.58/0.56 0.75/1.64 0.11/0.47 0.68/0.40 0.93/0.61 0.89/0.68 0.41/0.66 0.68/0.71 0.73/0.35 0.50/0.65 0.78/0.11 0.70/0.46 0.70/0.46 0.58/0.10 0.81/0.11 0.70/0.80 CMIP6-COUP #27 0.54/0.62 0.74/1.69 0.21/0.47 0.61/0.39 0.92/0.51 0.92/0.71 0.52/0.63 -0.42/1.50 0.77/0.31 0.77/0.47 0.80/0.10 0.89/0.31 0.89/0.31 0.58/0.10 0.83/0.11 0.72/0.79 CMIP6-COUP #28 0.41/0.64 0.61/2.03 0.14/0.43 0.53/0.43 0.92/0.58 0.91/0.55 0.30/0.71 0.22/1.06 0.30/0.54 0.02/0.96 0.71/0.08 0.81/0.43 0.81/0.43 0.52/0.10 0.84/0.10 0.62/0.87 CMIP6-COUP #29 0.59/0.56 0.74/1.89 0.39/0.39 0.71/0.36 0.94/0.36 0.89/0.59 0.16/0.71 0.81/0.53 0.41/0.50 0.58/0.64 0.78/0.08 0.75/0.42 0.75/0.42 0.59/0.09 0.84/0.10 0.71/0.75 CMIP6-COUP #30 0.55/0.64 0.80/1.49 0.42/0.44 0.74/0.36 0.89/0.56 0.92/0.57 0.52/0.57 0.88/0.45 0.49/0.47 0.83/0.42 0.33/0.13 0.80/0.40 0.80/0.40 0.53/0.12 0.81/0.11 0.73/0.75 CMIP6-COUP #31 0.63/0.55 0.82/1.55 0.07/0.52 0.60/0.40 0.90/0.55 0.91/0.55 0.29/0.62 0.84/0.50 0.17/0.58 0.50/0.66 0.64/0.11 0.84/0.35 0.84/0.35 0.55/0.10 0.81/0.11 0.69/0.78 CMIP6-COUP #32 0.56/0.56 0.75/1.68 0.01/0.57 0.63/0.38 0.91/0.68 0.92/0.74 0.39/0.60 0.81/0.53 0.12/0.64 0.71/0.53 0.40/0.10 0.76/0.43 0.76/0.43 0.54/0.11 0.83/0.10 0.67/0.83 CMIP6-COUP #33 0.61/0.53 0.78/1.66 0.64/0.31 0.69/0.30 0.91/0.41 0.90/0.54 0.76/0.37 -0.69/1.60 -0.09/0.68 0.64/0.60 -0.11/0.14 0.83/0.41 0.83/0.41 0.22/0.12 0.85/0.10 0.62/0.81 CMIP6-COUP #34 -0.23/0.83 -0.22/2.95 0.64/0.31 0.69/0.30 0.93/0.39 0.91/0.52 -0.25/0.91 0.85/0.47 0.02/0.68 0.88/0.34 -0.11/0.14 0.61/0.52 0.61/0.52 0.22/0.12 0.86/0.10 0.56/0.85 CMIP6-COUP #35 0.24/0.70 0.55/2.26 0.72/0.30 0.51/0.56 0.91/0.49 0.91/0.56 -0.09/0.87 -0.72/1.52 0.52/0.49 0.77/0.48 0.36/0.11 0.82/0.37 0.82/0.37 0.39/0.12 0.84/0.10 0.60/0.87 CESM2-COUP #1 0.69/0.62 0.82/1.70 0.72/0.50 0.73/0.84 0.93/0.40 0.90/0.55 0.70/0.58 0.90/0.45 0.24/0.64 0.74/0.54 0.63/0.10 0.87/0.42 0.87/0.42 0.58/0.10 0.88/0.12 0.79/0.84 CESM2-COUP #2 0.66/0.59 0.79/1.89 0.79/0.71 0.47/0.65 0.85/0.64 0.91/0.52 -0.44/0.98 -0.53/1.44 0.46/0.55 -0.55/1.21 0.66/0.16 0.85/0.46 0.85/0.46 0.58/0.10 0.88/0.11 0.60/1.10 CESM2-COUP #3 0.68/0.56 0.89/1.32 0.81/0.60 0.66/0.38 0.94/0.42 0.90/0.56 0.63/0.59 -0.76/1.66 0.74/0.37 -0.64/1.32 0.43/0.12 0.89/0.41 0.89/0.41 0.57/0.09 0.89/0.10 0.69/0.92 CESM2-COUP #4 0.67/0.57 0.54/2.26 0.79/0.45 0.76/0.30 0.87/0.60 0.64/1.03 -0.49/1.23 -0.86/1.84 -0.51/0.95 0.64/0.77 0.56/0.14 0.73/0.56 0.73/0.56 0.50/0.11 0.89/0.11 0.51/1.11 CESM2-COUP #5 0.72/0.59 0.83/1.64 0.76/0.48 0.69/0.45 0.97/0.51 0.56/1.13 0.62/0.60 0.57/0.83 0.62/0.48 0.82/0.41 0.50/0.14 0.91/0.40 0.91/0.40 0.53/0.11 0.88/0.12 0.77/0.84 CESM2-COUP #6 0.65/0.69 0.79/1.79 0.82/0.77 0.71/0.73 0.73/0.76 0.86/0.78 0.57/0.60 -0.25/1.44 0.56/0.58 -0.27/1.23 0.69/0.13 0.86/0.54 0.86/0.54 0.54/0.12 0.89/0.12 0.67/1.12 CESM2-COUP #7 0.58/0.58 0.12/2.94 0.77/0.61 0.53/0.70 0.93/0.39 0.93/0.51 0.68/0.55 -0.75/1.69 0.71/0.35 0.72/0.55 0.64/0.13 0.78/0.46 0.78/0.46 0.54/0.10 0.89/0.10 0.67/0.95 CESM2-COUP #8 0.43/0.64 0.51/2.20 0.29/0.45 0.76/0.29 0.88/0.46 0.90/0.59 0.65/0.46 0.22/1.06 0.42/0.47 0.19/0.87 0.67/0.11 0.70/0.46 0.70/0.46 0.56/0.09 0.88/0.09 0.64/0.82 CESM2-COUP #9 0.61/0.57 0.33/2.62 0.62/0.40 0.63/0.43 0.91/0.54 0.90/0.59 0.66/0.56 -0.30/1.40 0.59/0.42 -0.34/1.21 0.38/0.14 0.84/0.40 0.84/0.40 0.56/0.09 0.90/0.09 0.64/0.91 CESM2-COUP #10 0.62/0.61 0.88/1.48 0.74/0.71 0.55/0.74 0.87/0.53 0.89/0.68 -0.55/1.13 -0.76/1.77 0.61/0.42 0.44/0.72 0.57/0.16 0.87/0.44 0.87/0.44 0.52/0.10 0.88/0.12 0.63/1.08 CESM2-COUP #11 0.60/0.61 0.85/1.51 0.73/0.54 0.66/0.81 0.92/0.40 0.65/1.03 0.73/0.54 0.60/0.79 0.55/0.45 0.71/0.63 0.58/0.15 0.88/0.41 0.88/0.41 0.57/0.10 0.90/0.11 0.75/0.90 E3SMv1-COUP #1 0.47/0.70 -0.83/3.95 0.27/0.65 0.53/0.54 0.88/0.73 0.89/0.58 0.66/0.48 0.08/1.08 0.21/0.56 -0.24/1.06 0.62/0.13 0.72/0.45 0.72/0.45 0.40/0.14 0.84/0.11 0.49/1.04 E3SMv1-COUP #2 0.66/0.52 -0.44/3.07 0.70/0.41 0.62/0.30 0.93/0.63 0.89/0.58 0.56/0.57 -0.15/1.28 0.01/0.66 -0.10/1.06 0.68/0.08 0.85/0.34 0.85/0.34 0.29/0.15 0.85/0.10 0.59/0.89 E3SMv1-COUP #3 0.36/0.67 -0.61/3.90 0.55/0.40 0.57/0.49 0.93/1.07 0.88/0.60 0.41/0.62 0.63/0.73 0.03/0.66 0.57/0.66 0.47/0.14 0.88/0.31 0.88/0.31 0.38/0.14 0.81/0.11 0.61/0.93 E3SMv1-COUP #4 ----/---- -0.37/3.27 0.64/0.46 0.58/0.47 0.89/0.68 0.91/0.52 0.78/0.43 0.21/1.16 0.41/0.50 0.18/0.92 0.57/0.13 0.50/0.60 0.50/0.60 0.36/0.13 0.83/0.11 ----/---- E3SMv2-COUP #1 0.47/0.67 0.79/1.52 0.81/0.30 0.82/0.27 0.93/0.81 0.87/0.61 -0.51/1.00 -0.33/1.33 0.58/0.45 -0.17/1.06 0.76/0.11 0.81/0.45 0.81/0.45 0.47/0.14 0.84/0.10 0.64/0.91 E3SMv2-COUP #2 0.53/0.63 0.55/2.18 0.41/0.34 0.84/0.27 0.92/0.84 0.93/0.54 0.64/0.51 -0.09/1.23 -0.61/0.88 -0.20/1.06 0.62/0.10 0.88/0.32 0.88/0.32 0.38/0.16 0.83/0.11 0.62/0.90 E3SMv2-COUP #3 0.49/0.61 0.57/2.16 0.66/0.31 0.70/0.32 0.93/1.04 0.96/0.37 0.72/0.43 0.76/0.62 0.63/0.45 0.18/0.83 0.72/0.09 0.85/0.38 0.85/0.38 0.24/0.17 0.84/0.10 0.74/0.77 E3SMv2-COUP #4 0.64/0.62 0.83/1.69 0.79/0.51 0.76/0.43 0.92/0.86 0.89/0.60 0.81/0.36 0.55/0.85 0.60/0.44 0.48/0.76 0.72/0.12 0.86/0.50 0.86/0.50 0.28/0.17 0.84/0.11 0.76/0.86 E3SMv2-COUP #5 0.63/0.56 0.40/2.53 0.73/0.32 0.84/0.33 0.92/0.76 0.90/0.70 -0.74/1.19 0.85/0.46 0.37/0.56 0.75/0.48 0.72/0.15 0.65/0.53 0.65/0.53 0.34/0.16 0.84/0.11 0.67/0.90