Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Model(s) ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina SAM SAM PSA1 PSA1 PSA2 PSA2 TPDV SO SO SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (DJF) (JJA) (DJF) (JJA) (DJF) (JJA) (Monthly) (DJF) (JJA) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- OBS 2 1.00/0.06 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.00 1.00/0.00 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.06 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.06 0.98/0.12 1.00/0.07 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.03 1.00/0.01 0.99/0.04 1.00/0.05 OBS 3 0.97/0.17 0.99/0.33 0.93/0.13 0.98/0.08 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.07 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.08 0.98/0.13 0.99/0.10 0.98/0.02 1.00/0.02 1.00/0.03 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.05 0.99/0.14 OBS 4 0.99/0.10 1.00/0.05 0.94/0.09 0.97/0.09 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.07 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.07 0.98/0.14 0.99/0.10 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.02 1.00/0.03 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.05 1.00/0.11 OBS 5 0.99/0.10 1.00/0.05 0.95/0.09 0.98/0.09 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.07 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.07 0.98/0.13 0.99/0.11 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.02 1.00/0.03 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.05 1.00/0.11 OBS 6 0.97/0.20 0.99/0.39 0.91/0.14 0.97/0.14 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.07 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.06 0.98/0.12 0.99/0.10 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.03 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.05 0.99/0.15 OBS 7 0.98/0.13 0.99/0.26 0.95/0.09 0.96/0.11 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.07 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.08 0.98/0.13 0.99/0.10 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.02 1.00/0.03 0.98/0.03 0.98/0.05 0.99/0.13 OBS 8 0.97/0.17 0.99/0.33 0.93/0.11 0.97/0.09 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.07 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 0.98/0.11 1.00/0.08 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.02 1.00/0.03 0.98/0.03 0.98/0.04 0.99/0.13 OBS 9 0.97/0.17 0.99/0.33 0.95/0.08 0.95/0.12 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.07 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.06 0.98/0.13 1.00/0.09 0.98/0.02 1.00/0.02 1.00/0.03 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.05 0.99/0.13 OBS 10 0.99/0.11 1.00/0.05 0.94/0.11 0.97/0.10 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.07 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.07 0.97/0.15 0.99/0.10 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.02 1.00/0.03 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.05 1.00/0.12 OBS 11 0.97/0.17 0.99/0.33 0.94/0.09 0.93/0.14 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.07 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.06 0.98/0.12 0.99/0.10 0.98/0.02 1.00/0.02 1.00/0.03 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.04 0.99/0.14 CMIP6-COUP #1 0.60/0.62 0.83/1.56 0.70/0.31 0.73/0.31 0.89/0.80 0.86/0.82 -0.09/1.07 0.86/0.59 0.18/0.73 -0.51/1.59 0.29/0.13 0.80/0.43 0.86/0.46 0.65/0.08 0.91/0.08 0.67/0.85 CMIP6-COUP #2 0.68/0.62 0.81/1.79 0.54/0.57 0.74/0.84 0.84/0.79 0.88/0.89 0.74/0.61 -0.26/1.88 -0.03/0.95 -0.20/1.57 0.63/0.10 0.80/0.63 0.70/0.78 0.59/0.10 0.89/0.11 0.64/1.10 CMIP6-COUP #3 0.60/0.63 0.83/1.63 0.65/0.78 0.41/0.68 0.86/0.79 0.81/0.99 0.67/0.66 0.08/1.52 -0.70/1.12 0.15/1.19 0.66/0.16 0.82/0.62 0.66/0.66 0.58/0.10 0.89/0.10 0.61/1.13 CMIP6-COUP #4 0.60/0.62 0.87/1.59 0.65/0.67 0.61/0.40 0.88/0.88 0.79/1.13 0.79/0.60 0.58/1.07 -0.74/1.18 0.09/1.39 0.43/0.12 0.85/0.58 0.76/0.69 0.58/0.09 0.90/0.10 0.65/1.03 CMIP6-COUP #5 0.64/0.59 0.62/1.83 0.61/0.53 0.75/0.31 0.87/0.85 0.42/1.75 0.72/0.75 0.88/0.56 -0.42/1.12 -0.31/1.65 0.55/0.14 0.79/0.57 0.83/0.57 0.49/0.12 0.90/0.10 0.64/1.01 CMIP6-COUP #6 0.68/0.62 0.88/1.34 0.69/0.50 0.67/0.46 0.92/1.11 0.83/0.94 0.77/0.52 0.65/0.95 0.38/0.72 0.69/0.73 0.49/0.14 0.88/0.49 0.63/0.92 0.53/0.12 0.89/0.11 0.74/0.91 CMIP6-COUP #7 0.65/0.69 0.86/1.49 0.67/0.84 0.72/0.72 0.79/0.77 0.84/1.11 0.64/0.74 0.69/0.90 0.57/0.67 0.69/0.86 0.68/0.13 0.84/0.59 0.63/1.07 0.55/0.12 0.90/0.11 0.73/1.07 CMIP6-COUP #8 0.54/0.60 0.25/2.43 0.64/0.66 0.47/0.72 0.82/0.78 0.96/0.74 0.74/0.56 0.46/1.20 -0.06/0.89 0.73/0.71 0.63/0.13 0.79/0.45 0.79/0.64 0.54/0.10 0.90/0.09 0.68/0.99 CMIP6-COUP #9 0.42/0.64 0.63/1.66 0.20/0.45 0.76/0.29 0.94/0.73 0.87/0.86 0.63/0.64 0.38/1.23 -0.59/1.05 0.14/1.24 0.67/0.11 0.73/0.47 0.78/0.57 0.56/0.09 0.89/0.09 0.62/0.90 CMIP6-COUP #10 0.56/0.60 0.42/2.17 0.45/0.45 0.58/0.46 0.88/0.88 0.84/0.89 0.62/0.68 0.15/1.52 -0.15/0.88 0.12/1.29 0.38/0.14 0.80/0.45 0.90/0.38 0.56/0.09 0.90/0.09 0.61/0.96 CMIP6-COUP #11 0.62/0.61 0.87/1.41 0.54/0.79 0.49/0.76 0.89/0.61 0.91/0.74 0.71/0.63 0.74/0.83 0.59/0.54 0.81/0.61 0.57/0.16 0.84/0.52 0.81/0.60 0.52/0.10 0.89/0.11 0.76/0.94 CMIP6-COUP #12 0.57/0.63 0.88/1.41 0.61/0.59 0.62/0.82 0.90/0.71 0.82/1.16 0.73/0.64 0.31/1.33 0.15/0.77 0.58/0.94 0.58/0.15 0.84/0.55 0.71/0.91 0.56/0.10 0.89/0.10 0.70/1.03 CMIP6-COUP #13 0.55/0.72 0.72/2.33 0.57/0.56 0.67/0.45 0.92/1.44 0.87/1.26 -0.45/1.23 0.13/1.46 0.52/0.59 -0.26/1.48 0.55/0.10 0.63/0.73 0.48/0.95 0.51/0.13 0.86/0.10 0.56/1.13 CMIP6-COUP #14 0.34/0.68 0.09/2.45 0.45/0.46 0.78/0.35 0.91/0.78 0.87/0.83 0.60/0.69 -0.28/1.77 -0.22/0.89 0.03/1.34 0.46/0.10 0.55/0.57 0.58/0.77 0.46/0.11 0.87/0.11 0.52/0.99 CMIP6-COUP #15 0.56/0.67 0.82/2.15 0.50/0.68 0.69/0.40 0.90/0.98 0.80/1.35 0.70/0.55 0.15/1.41 -0.00/0.82 -0.41/1.57 0.58/0.12 0.73/0.68 0.42/0.94 0.42/0.12 0.87/0.11 0.59/1.10 CMIP6-COUP #16 0.57/0.58 0.74/1.54 0.55/0.44 0.77/0.51 0.91/0.75 0.83/1.22 0.27/0.86 0.44/1.11 -0.61/1.02 -0.39/1.58 0.75/0.07 0.72/0.49 0.70/0.65 0.45/0.11 0.85/0.12 0.59/0.96 CMIP6-COUP #17 0.55/0.60 0.77/1.38 0.60/0.44 0.78/0.30 0.87/0.80 0.86/0.97 0.83/0.42 0.77/0.72 -0.29/0.96 -0.49/1.60 0.73/0.10 0.84/0.40 0.68/0.72 0.36/0.12 0.86/0.11 0.66/0.87 CMIP6-COUP #18 0.62/0.58 0.80/1.31 0.54/0.51 0.74/0.57 0.90/1.24 0.85/0.94 -0.54/1.36 0.05/1.62 0.08/0.78 -0.03/1.42 0.70/0.14 0.75/0.74 0.47/0.97 0.53/0.13 0.88/0.10 0.58/1.14 CMIP6-COUP #19 0.60/0.52 0.56/1.74 0.62/0.40 0.68/0.36 0.92/0.97 0.86/1.38 0.49/0.73 0.64/0.88 0.57/0.57 0.34/1.07 0.45/0.11 0.72/0.51 0.79/0.54 0.41/0.12 0.85/0.11 0.67/0.85 CMIP6-COUP #20 0.64/0.52 0.48/1.85 0.62/0.42 0.56/0.59 0.89/1.20 0.88/1.16 -0.14/1.11 0.50/1.06 0.09/0.81 0.52/0.90 0.66/0.12 0.80/0.41 0.81/0.53 0.43/0.12 0.86/0.11 0.64/0.96 CMIP6-COUP #21 0.57/0.68 0.85/1.23 0.63/0.55 0.83/0.62 0.87/1.51 0.87/1.05 0.56/0.71 -0.09/1.56 0.65/0.52 -0.52/1.66 0.74/0.12 0.75/0.82 0.61/0.73 0.51/0.12 0.86/0.11 0.65/1.08 CMIP6-COUP #22 0.63/0.59 0.59/1.82 0.54/0.62 0.74/0.56 0.90/0.88 0.81/1.29 0.72/0.58 0.63/1.00 0.01/0.80 0.13/1.24 0.73/0.09 0.84/0.42 0.68/0.77 0.51/0.12 0.88/0.10 0.67/0.96 CMIP6-COUP #23 0.69/0.52 0.86/1.07 0.23/0.44 0.74/0.33 0.93/0.80 0.87/0.86 0.16/0.90 -0.18/1.61 -0.02/0.85 0.31/1.07 0.85/0.10 0.80/0.50 0.74/0.62 0.60/0.10 0.86/0.10 0.66/0.90 CMIP6-COUP #24 0.59/0.55 0.66/1.57 0.32/0.45 0.75/0.38 0.89/0.73 0.91/0.87 0.46/0.72 0.50/1.08 -0.15/0.80 -0.49/1.57 0.71/0.08 0.81/0.40 0.76/0.60 0.54/0.11 0.87/0.10 0.63/0.88 CMIP6-COUP #25 0.60/0.58 0.78/1.34 0.23/0.45 0.75/0.36 0.94/1.13 0.88/0.85 0.60/0.71 0.60/1.03 0.24/0.68 0.39/0.98 0.79/0.16 0.81/0.41 0.79/0.60 0.58/0.11 0.86/0.10 0.71/0.88 CMIP6-COUP #26 0.59/0.55 0.80/1.31 0.29/0.41 0.69/0.39 0.92/0.74 0.94/0.59 0.37/0.83 -0.34/1.80 -0.62/1.08 -0.01/1.29 0.78/0.11 0.76/0.44 0.75/0.72 0.58/0.10 0.86/0.10 0.60/0.95 CMIP6-COUP #27 0.49/0.65 0.72/1.49 0.33/0.43 0.67/0.37 0.89/0.97 0.91/1.11 0.58/0.67 0.43/1.14 0.40/0.65 0.05/1.26 0.80/0.10 0.77/0.43 0.65/0.77 0.58/0.10 0.86/0.10 0.66/0.89 CMIP6-COUP #28 0.42/0.64 0.66/1.60 0.25/0.39 0.55/0.42 0.88/0.94 0.89/1.00 -0.32/1.10 0.29/1.40 0.19/0.73 -0.06/1.39 0.70/0.08 0.57/0.55 0.63/0.71 0.52/0.11 0.88/0.10 0.55/0.96 CMIP6-COUP #29 0.61/0.54 0.81/1.38 0.44/0.36 0.72/0.36 0.88/0.73 0.86/0.97 -0.09/1.08 0.83/0.68 -0.14/0.83 0.49/0.94 0.78/0.08 0.80/0.40 0.76/0.65 0.59/0.09 0.87/0.10 0.68/0.82 CMIP6-COUP #30 0.51/0.67 0.80/1.27 0.49/0.41 0.79/0.34 0.87/1.05 0.86/0.99 -0.25/1.12 -0.17/1.67 -0.40/1.02 -0.15/1.41 0.33/0.13 0.71/0.59 0.91/0.37 0.52/0.12 0.85/0.10 0.56/1.02 CMIP6-COUP #31 0.58/0.58 0.83/1.20 0.17/0.48 0.66/0.37 0.88/0.90 0.89/0.93 -0.39/1.17 0.83/0.64 0.06/0.78 0.14/1.22 0.64/0.11 0.67/0.52 0.82/0.50 0.55/0.10 0.86/0.10 0.63/0.89 CMIP6-COUP #32 0.51/0.59 0.76/1.37 0.13/0.52 0.66/0.37 0.87/0.91 0.88/1.07 -0.54/1.27 0.57/0.95 0.22/0.70 0.52/0.92 0.40/0.11 0.68/0.55 0.70/0.66 0.54/0.11 0.87/0.10 0.59/0.93 CMIP6-COUP #33 0.61/0.52 0.75/1.42 0.63/0.32 0.68/0.31 0.93/0.45 0.86/0.89 0.42/0.77 0.70/0.81 -0.23/0.88 0.23/1.18 -0.11/0.14 0.82/0.39 0.83/0.52 0.21/0.12 0.88/0.09 0.64/0.81 CMIP6-COUP #34 -0.23/0.82 -0.14/2.53 0.63/0.32 0.68/0.31 0.83/0.75 0.85/0.86 -0.17/1.17 0.55/1.06 0.31/0.75 0.51/0.94 -0.11/0.14 0.68/0.50 0.75/0.60 0.21/0.12 0.88/0.09 0.50/0.93 CMIP6-COUP #35 0.32/0.66 0.58/1.85 0.61/0.34 0.56/0.54 0.86/1.05 0.93/0.73 -0.32/1.25 0.15/1.45 0.36/0.74 0.19/1.13 0.36/0.11 0.72/0.47 0.85/0.46 0.39/0.12 0.88/0.10 0.58/0.96 CESM2-COUP #1 0.68/0.62 0.81/1.79 0.54/0.57 0.74/0.84 0.84/0.79 0.88/0.89 0.74/0.61 -0.26/1.88 -0.03/0.95 -0.20/1.57 0.63/0.10 0.80/0.63 0.70/0.78 0.59/0.10 0.89/0.11 0.64/1.10 CESM2-COUP #2 0.60/0.63 0.83/1.63 0.65/0.78 0.41/0.68 0.86/0.79 0.81/0.99 0.67/0.66 0.08/1.52 -0.70/1.12 0.15/1.19 0.66/0.16 0.82/0.62 0.66/0.66 0.58/0.10 0.89/0.10 0.61/1.13 CESM2-COUP #3 0.60/0.62 0.87/1.59 0.65/0.67 0.61/0.40 0.88/0.88 0.79/1.13 0.79/0.60 0.58/1.07 -0.74/1.18 0.09/1.39 0.43/0.12 0.85/0.58 0.76/0.69 0.58/0.09 0.90/0.10 0.65/1.03 CESM2-COUP #4 0.64/0.59 0.62/1.83 0.61/0.53 0.75/0.31 0.87/0.85 0.42/1.75 0.72/0.75 0.88/0.56 -0.42/1.12 -0.31/1.65 0.55/0.14 0.79/0.57 0.83/0.57 0.49/0.12 0.90/0.10 0.64/1.01 CESM2-COUP #5 0.68/0.62 0.88/1.34 0.69/0.50 0.67/0.46 0.92/1.11 0.83/0.94 0.77/0.52 0.65/0.95 0.38/0.72 0.69/0.73 0.49/0.14 0.88/0.49 0.63/0.92 0.53/0.12 0.89/0.11 0.74/0.91 CESM2-COUP #6 0.65/0.69 0.86/1.49 0.67/0.84 0.72/0.72 0.79/0.77 0.84/1.11 0.64/0.74 0.69/0.90 0.57/0.67 0.69/0.86 0.68/0.13 0.84/0.59 0.63/1.07 0.55/0.12 0.90/0.11 0.73/1.07 CESM2-COUP #7 0.54/0.60 0.25/2.43 0.64/0.66 0.47/0.72 0.82/0.78 0.96/0.74 0.74/0.56 0.46/1.20 -0.06/0.89 0.73/0.71 0.63/0.13 0.79/0.45 0.79/0.64 0.54/0.10 0.90/0.09 0.68/0.99 CESM2-COUP #8 0.42/0.64 0.63/1.66 0.20/0.45 0.76/0.29 0.94/0.73 0.87/0.86 0.63/0.64 0.38/1.23 -0.59/1.05 0.14/1.24 0.67/0.11 0.73/0.47 0.78/0.57 0.56/0.09 0.89/0.09 0.62/0.90 CESM2-COUP #9 0.56/0.60 0.42/2.17 0.45/0.45 0.58/0.46 0.88/0.88 0.84/0.89 0.62/0.68 0.15/1.52 -0.15/0.88 0.12/1.29 0.38/0.14 0.80/0.45 0.90/0.38 0.56/0.09 0.90/0.09 0.61/0.96 CESM2-COUP #10 0.62/0.61 0.87/1.41 0.54/0.79 0.49/0.76 0.89/0.61 0.91/0.74 0.71/0.63 0.74/0.83 0.59/0.54 0.81/0.61 0.57/0.16 0.84/0.52 0.81/0.60 0.52/0.10 0.89/0.11 0.76/0.94 CESM2-COUP #11 0.57/0.63 0.88/1.41 0.61/0.59 0.62/0.82 0.90/0.71 0.82/1.16 0.73/0.64 0.31/1.33 0.15/0.77 0.58/0.94 0.58/0.15 0.84/0.55 0.71/0.91 0.56/0.10 0.89/0.10 0.70/1.03 E3SMv1-COUP #1 0.44/0.72 -0.78/3.53 0.21/0.65 0.54/0.55 0.88/1.12 0.86/0.82 0.63/0.74 0.41/1.24 0.55/0.63 0.10/1.35 0.62/0.13 0.86/0.35 0.29/0.99 0.39/0.15 0.86/0.10 0.53/1.10 E3SMv1-COUP #2 0.63/0.54 -0.52/2.79 0.61/0.44 0.61/0.31 0.85/1.20 0.91/0.76 0.81/0.51 0.71/0.80 -0.56/1.04 0.76/0.66 0.68/0.08 0.90/0.33 0.76/0.61 0.28/0.15 0.87/0.10 0.65/0.86 E3SMv1-COUP #3 0.45/0.61 -0.62/3.58 0.42/0.43 0.62/0.48 0.91/1.67 0.86/0.84 -0.59/1.30 -0.20/1.71 0.12/0.81 -0.46/1.66 0.47/0.14 0.75/0.61 0.67/0.66 0.37/0.15 0.85/0.10 0.41/1.18 E3SMv2-COUP #1 0.48/0.67 0.74/1.53 0.69/0.36 0.81/0.27 0.87/1.35 0.69/1.24 0.54/0.69 0.48/1.13 0.20/0.79 0.32/1.10 0.76/0.11 0.67/0.81 0.74/0.61 0.46/0.14 0.87/0.10 0.66/0.94 E3SMv2-COUP #2 0.52/0.64 0.64/1.69 0.29/0.35 0.85/0.27 0.92/1.24 0.81/1.18 0.84/0.45 0.22/1.42 0.10/0.88 -0.01/1.33 0.62/0.10 0.81/0.42 0.76/0.59 0.38/0.17 0.85/0.10 0.65/0.91 E3SMv2-COUP #3 0.51/0.59 0.66/1.63 0.51/0.35 0.72/0.31 0.89/1.58 0.89/0.81 -0.47/1.34 -0.23/1.69 -0.41/1.04 -0.07/1.38 0.73/0.09 0.79/0.51 0.72/0.63 0.23/0.17 0.86/0.10 0.53/1.05 E3SMv2-COUP #4 0.65/0.61 0.81/1.62 0.62/0.59 0.74/0.44 0.89/1.30 0.88/0.79 0.74/0.58 0.09/1.66 -0.37/0.96 -0.06/1.38 0.72/0.12 0.71/0.80 0.79/0.58 0.28/0.17 0.86/0.10 0.64/1.06 E3SMv2-COUP #5 0.57/0.60 0.41/2.20 0.66/0.35 0.86/0.31 0.92/0.99 0.86/0.86 0.62/0.66 -0.49/1.91 0.22/0.83 -0.03/1.29 0.72/0.15 0.56/0.60 0.82/0.51 0.34/0.16 0.86/0.10 0.62/0.98 E3SMv2-AMIP #1 0.69/0.50 0.82/1.23 0.82/0.17 0.93/0.14 0.85/0.76 0.94/0.86 0.81/0.49 0.68/1.00 0.43/0.71 -0.74/1.93 0.98/0.02 0.90/0.32 0.75/0.64 0.90/0.05 0.91/0.09 0.81/0.69 E3SMv2-AMIP #2 0.72/0.48 0.65/1.77 0.82/0.17 0.93/0.14 0.84/0.80 0.91/0.75 0.58/0.71 0.54/1.09 -0.27/1.09 0.71/0.75 0.98/0.02 0.78/0.46 0.76/0.63 0.89/0.05 0.89/0.09 0.79/0.71 E3SMv2-AMIP #3 0.60/0.57 -0.05/3.20 0.82/0.17 0.93/0.14 0.92/1.24 0.80/0.99 0.69/0.57 0.51/1.13 0.32/0.76 0.41/1.07 0.98/0.02 0.51/0.64 0.77/0.56 0.90/0.05 0.89/0.10 0.76/0.79