Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Model(s) ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina SAM SAM PSA1 PSA1 PSA2 PSA2 TPDV SO SO SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (NDJFMA) (MJJASO) (NDJFMA) (MJJASO) (NDJFMA) (MJJASO) (Monthly) (NDJFMA) (MJJASO) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- OBS 2 0.63/0.69 0.84/1.62 0.74/0.47 0.85/0.72 0.89/0.49 0.83/0.72 -0.32/1.07 0.66/0.77 0.05/0.73 0.82/0.44 -0.11/0.14 0.83/0.50 0.79/0.51 0.51/0.10 0.92/0.10 0.69/0.90 OBS 3 0.55/0.70 0.64/2.45 0.78/0.66 0.60/0.56 0.80/0.74 0.91/0.56 0.79/0.40 -0.46/1.34 -0.31/0.82 -0.40/1.20 0.27/0.13 0.84/0.50 0.72/0.52 0.52/0.10 0.92/0.10 0.59/0.99 OBS 4 0.62/0.64 0.86/1.51 0.76/0.56 0.75/0.32 0.90/0.51 0.88/0.59 -0.52/1.10 -0.67/1.54 -0.45/0.86 -0.58/1.34 -0.07/0.12 0.85/0.48 0.80/0.50 0.51/0.09 0.93/0.09 0.53/1.00 OBS 5 0.57/0.68 0.42/2.66 0.80/0.43 0.91/0.18 0.92/0.47 0.70/0.90 0.69/0.64 -0.70/1.69 0.78/0.39 0.59/0.79 -0.09/0.15 0.65/0.62 0.79/0.59 0.43/0.11 0.91/0.10 0.65/0.92 OBS 6 0.58/0.72 0.76/1.97 0.76/0.51 0.83/0.34 0.93/0.57 0.62/0.97 -0.62/1.19 0.69/0.69 -0.50/0.91 0.66/0.60 -0.07/0.16 0.88/0.49 0.78/0.67 0.45/0.12 0.91/0.11 0.62/0.98 OBS 7 0.55/0.80 0.63/2.40 0.76/0.73 0.88/0.58 0.56/0.99 0.87/0.79 -0.30/1.02 -0.17/1.34 -0.23/0.90 -0.12/1.21 -0.02/0.16 0.79/0.65 0.76/0.74 0.44/0.13 0.92/0.11 0.53/1.19 OBS 8 0.52/0.67 0.00/3.31 0.75/0.60 0.62/0.64 0.91/0.45 0.93/0.55 -0.55/1.16 -0.59/1.55 -0.23/0.77 0.47/0.79 -0.00/0.15 0.68/0.52 0.75/0.62 0.45/0.10 0.93/0.09 0.51/1.07 OBS 9 0.43/0.71 0.32/2.70 0.38/0.53 0.79/0.27 0.94/0.36 0.85/0.70 -0.43/0.92 0.44/0.86 -0.24/0.72 0.36/0.80 0.09/0.11 0.60/0.44 0.77/0.47 0.50/0.09 0.91/0.08 0.55/0.86 OBS 10 0.54/0.67 0.20/3.01 0.67/0.44 0.73/0.37 0.95/0.43 0.89/0.62 -0.68/1.20 -0.16/1.27 -0.33/0.77 -0.13/1.16 -0.25/0.16 0.74/0.47 0.81/0.46 0.50/0.09 0.91/0.09 0.50/1.01 OBS 11 0.49/0.74 0.76/1.98 0.74/0.67 0.68/0.63 0.75/0.75 0.89/0.71 0.61/0.60 -0.60/1.62 -0.57/0.87 0.55/0.64 -0.03/0.15 0.79/0.55 0.80/0.58 0.42/0.10 0.92/0.11 0.58/1.03 OBS 12 0.51/0.72 0.76/1.92 0.76/0.55 0.76/0.69 0.84/0.59 0.58/1.07 -0.43/1.11 0.34/0.98 -0.17/0.73 0.54/0.77 0.14/0.14 0.79/0.54 0.63/0.83 0.48/0.10 0.92/0.10 0.57/1.04 OBS 13 0.62/0.69 0.88/1.54 0.62/0.59 0.85/0.34 0.97/0.68 0.91/1.03 -0.16/0.89 -0.51/1.39 0.06/0.72 0.56/0.67 0.13/0.12 0.84/0.57 0.78/0.50 0.48/0.12 0.89/0.08 0.67/0.96 OBS 14 0.48/0.68 -0.17/3.32 0.62/0.49 0.70/0.37 0.96/0.31 0.91/0.65 -0.34/0.97 0.76/0.57 0.11/0.61 0.58/0.63 0.48/0.11 0.36/0.53 0.81/0.43 0.45/0.10 0.89/0.08 0.61/0.84 OBS 15 0.53/0.72 0.88/1.74 0.66/0.69 0.85/0.37 0.96/0.37 0.91/0.86 -0.14/0.86 0.47/0.80 -0.04/0.72 0.09/0.99 0.39/0.08 0.85/0.42 0.61/0.61 0.45/0.11 0.89/0.08 0.67/0.89 OBS 16 0.70/0.54 0.84/1.44 0.66/0.47 0.65/0.51 0.98/0.39 0.89/0.81 0.11/0.71 0.79/0.52 0.15/0.60 0.68/0.56 0.03/0.12 0.78/0.35 0.79/0.47 0.43/0.10 0.87/0.09 0.71/0.75 OBS 17 0.56/0.64 0.72/1.85 0.67/0.43 0.70/0.34 0.97/0.29 0.89/0.63 -0.09/0.80 -0.58/1.32 0.36/0.59 0.65/0.57 0.28/0.10 0.90/0.24 0.68/0.55 0.39/0.11 0.88/0.08 0.65/0.79 OBS 18 0.67/0.58 0.84/1.46 0.62/0.55 0.72/0.52 0.97/0.60 0.95/0.68 -0.29/0.99 0.87/0.49 0.26/0.58 0.77/0.51 0.14/0.15 0.85/0.40 0.72/0.60 0.47/0.12 0.89/0.08 0.74/0.85 OBS 19 0.51/0.64 0.61/2.22 0.75/0.39 0.74/0.35 0.98/0.57 0.93/0.79 -0.40/1.00 0.49/0.81 0.06/0.61 0.32/0.89 0.37/0.06 0.81/0.35 0.88/0.36 0.42/0.11 0.87/0.09 0.67/0.80 OBS 20 0.59/0.61 0.26/2.68 0.70/0.42 0.66/0.51 0.97/0.48 0.90/0.90 0.57/0.55 0.69/0.60 -0.15/0.72 0.48/0.70 0.33/0.10 0.76/0.35 0.85/0.39 0.41/0.11 0.88/0.09 0.68/0.79 OBS 21 0.56/0.71 0.85/1.45 0.80/0.48 0.82/0.53 0.98/0.63 0.92/0.80 -0.19/0.90 0.59/0.79 0.20/0.61 0.56/0.69 0.50/0.08 0.88/0.51 0.64/0.64 0.44/0.12 0.89/0.08 0.73/0.86 OBS 22 0.66/0.61 0.40/2.60 0.46/0.69 0.69/0.52 0.97/0.41 0.90/0.74 -0.47/1.10 0.87/0.44 -0.40/0.85 0.56/0.64 0.37/0.08 0.74/0.47 0.77/0.64 0.50/0.11 0.90/0.08 0.65/0.90 OBS 23 0.55/0.66 0.73/1.88 0.26/0.52 0.57/0.47 0.98/0.36 0.92/0.63 -0.23/0.90 0.85/0.43 -0.11/0.72 0.03/0.96 0.36/0.15 0.81/0.42 0.81/0.43 0.55/0.09 0.86/0.09 0.66/0.86 OBS 24 0.61/0.60 0.68/2.06 0.31/0.51 0.57/0.52 0.97/0.28 0.94/0.58 0.35/0.61 0.82/0.46 -0.48/0.83 -0.31/1.12 0.48/0.08 0.75/0.35 0.73/0.51 0.48/0.10 0.87/0.09 0.64/0.80 OBS 25 0.59/0.64 0.74/1.82 0.30/0.51 0.54/0.50 0.98/0.66 0.92/0.44 -0.58/1.01 0.90/0.38 -0.68/0.89 0.28/0.81 0.35/0.18 0.79/0.35 0.88/0.36 0.52/0.11 0.87/0.09 0.64/0.89 OBS 26 0.63/0.57 0.76/1.81 0.27/0.50 0.46/0.53 0.99/0.40 0.84/0.83 -0.59/1.01 0.82/0.51 -0.27/0.78 0.51/0.68 0.21/0.16 0.59/0.45 0.71/0.65 0.52/0.09 0.86/0.09 0.61/0.90 OBS 27 0.58/0.65 0.70/1.95 0.19/0.56 0.49/0.51 0.98/0.31 0.89/0.87 -0.43/1.02 -0.51/1.47 -0.38/0.81 0.54/0.68 0.41/0.10 0.80/0.33 0.73/0.50 0.52/0.10 0.87/0.09 0.56/0.93 OBS 28 0.57/0.63 0.45/2.45 0.20/0.52 0.48/0.53 0.98/0.37 0.94/0.50 0.02/0.80 0.36/0.92 0.03/0.67 0.24/0.88 0.23/0.09 0.76/0.36 0.77/0.45 0.47/0.10 0.88/0.09 0.61/0.84 OBS 29 0.65/0.56 0.73/2.12 0.60/0.39 0.53/0.50 0.96/0.31 0.86/0.65 -0.25/0.85 0.84/0.46 0.18/0.62 0.79/0.45 0.45/0.08 0.76/0.35 0.82/0.43 0.55/0.09 0.88/0.09 0.70/0.71 OBS 30 0.70/0.55 0.83/1.59 0.40/0.48 0.69/0.43 0.97/0.32 0.92/0.61 0.20/0.73 0.90/0.40 0.25/0.59 0.69/0.58 0.03/0.11 0.85/0.31 0.91/0.34 0.51/0.11 0.86/0.09 0.75/0.71 OBS 31 0.65/0.57 0.81/1.73 0.24/0.56 0.54/0.49 0.97/0.35 0.88/0.66 -0.17/0.82 0.68/0.63 -0.44/0.80 0.45/0.73 0.39/0.07 0.87/0.26 0.79/0.43 0.52/0.09 0.86/0.09 0.64/0.78 OBS 32 0.65/0.57 0.81/1.73 0.24/0.56 0.54/0.49 0.97/0.35 0.88/0.66 -0.17/0.82 0.68/0.63 -0.44/0.80 0.45/0.73 0.39/0.07 0.87/0.26 0.79/0.43 0.52/0.09 0.86/0.09 0.64/0.78 OBS 33 0.54/0.63 0.76/1.86 0.10/0.64 0.57/0.46 0.97/0.49 0.92/0.85 -0.34/0.90 0.86/0.43 -0.17/0.77 0.73/0.52 -0.22/0.13 0.76/0.39 0.82/0.41 0.49/0.10 0.88/0.09 0.64/0.84 OBS 34 0.60/0.58 0.80/1.81 0.68/0.33 0.84/0.25 0.96/0.33 0.94/0.41 -0.44/0.90 -0.56/1.48 0.07/0.65 0.30/0.89 -0.34/0.16 0.82/0.31 0.90/0.32 0.29/0.10 0.90/0.08 0.62/0.83 OBS 35 -0.35/0.94 -0.40/3.34 0.68/0.33 0.84/0.25 0.97/0.26 0.92/0.53 0.30/0.70 0.87/0.41 0.41/0.56 0.76/0.50 -0.34/0.16 0.48/0.52 0.82/0.43 0.29/0.10 0.90/0.09 0.63/0.78 OBS 36 0.21/0.78 0.66/2.24 0.69/0.34 0.71/0.44 0.96/0.35 0.90/0.61 -0.12/0.83 -0.52/1.36 0.39/0.57 0.53/0.68 -0.05/0.11 0.71/0.40 0.88/0.33 0.40/0.11 0.89/0.08 0.60/0.83 ERA5-ENS #1 0.60/0.62 0.83/1.56 0.70/0.31 0.73/0.31 0.95/0.34 0.93/0.47 -0.37/0.97 0.74/0.57 -0.34/0.79 0.82/0.43 0.26/0.11 0.85/0.29 0.86/0.36 0.65/0.08 0.91/0.08 0.72/0.71 ERA5-ENS #2 0.60/0.62 0.83/1.55 0.70/0.31 0.73/0.31 0.95/0.33 0.94/0.47 -0.40/0.98 0.73/0.58 -0.30/0.77 0.81/0.43 0.26/0.11 0.85/0.29 0.86/0.37 0.65/0.08 0.92/0.07 0.72/0.71 ERA5-ENS #3 0.63/0.61 0.81/1.59 0.73/0.30 0.68/0.34 0.95/0.33 0.94/0.47 -0.40/0.98 0.73/0.59 -0.31/0.77 0.81/0.44 0.24/0.10 0.85/0.30 0.86/0.37 0.65/0.08 0.92/0.07 0.72/0.71 ERA5-ENS #4 0.59/0.62 0.83/1.55 0.68/0.32 0.68/0.33 0.95/0.33 0.94/0.47 -0.40/0.98 0.73/0.59 -0.30/0.77 0.81/0.44 0.27/0.11 0.85/0.30 0.86/0.37 0.64/0.08 0.91/0.07 0.72/0.72 ERA5-ENS #5 0.66/0.57 0.81/1.63 0.75/0.29 0.69/0.32 0.95/0.33 0.94/0.47 -0.40/0.98 0.73/0.59 -0.31/0.77 0.81/0.44 0.28/0.11 0.90/0.28 0.85/0.39 0.65/0.08 0.91/0.07 0.73/0.71 ERA5-ENS #6 0.68/0.56 0.89/1.23 0.79/0.28 0.72/0.31 0.93/0.38 0.93/0.47 -0.15/0.84 0.78/0.56 -0.10/0.71 0.71/0.57 0.27/0.11 0.90/0.28 0.85/0.39 0.64/0.08 0.92/0.07 0.75/0.68 ERA5-ENS #7 0.68/0.54 0.89/1.31 0.64/0.35 0.70/0.32 0.93/0.38 0.93/0.47 -0.15/0.84 0.78/0.55 -0.12/0.71 0.71/0.57 0.27/0.11 0.90/0.28 0.85/0.39 0.65/0.08 0.91/0.07 0.74/0.69 ERA5-ENS #8 0.68/0.56 0.91/1.12 0.71/0.31 0.70/0.32 0.93/0.38 0.93/0.47 -0.15/0.84 0.78/0.55 -0.14/0.72 0.71/0.57 0.26/0.11 0.90/0.28 0.85/0.39 0.64/0.08 0.92/0.07 0.75/0.68 ERA5-ENS #9 0.67/0.57 0.89/1.23 0.73/0.30 0.66/0.34 0.93/0.38 0.93/0.47 -0.14/0.84 0.78/0.56 -0.12/0.72 0.71/0.57 0.28/0.10 0.90/0.28 0.85/0.39 0.65/0.08 0.92/0.07 0.74/0.68 ERA5-ENS #10 0.67/0.56 0.87/1.32 0.75/0.30 0.67/0.33 0.93/0.39 0.93/0.47 -0.14/0.84 0.78/0.55 -0.11/0.71 0.71/0.57 0.28/0.11 0.90/0.28 0.85/0.39 0.64/0.09 0.92/0.07 0.74/0.69 ERA5-ENS #11 0.61/0.62 0.91/1.10 0.74/0.31 0.65/0.35 0.93/0.38 0.93/0.47 -0.15/0.84 0.78/0.56 -0.13/0.72 0.71/0.57 0.27/0.11 0.90/0.28 0.85/0.39 0.65/0.08 0.92/0.07 0.74/0.69 E3SMv1-COUP #1 0.44/0.76 -0.81/4.16 0.54/0.68 0.65/0.46 0.96/0.53 0.93/0.49 -0.15/0.83 -0.01/1.07 0.25/0.57 -0.03/0.98 0.14/0.15 0.65/0.40 0.37/0.76 0.49/0.13 0.89/0.09 0.47/1.01 E3SMv1-COUP #2 0.64/0.57 -0.40/3.26 0.81/0.40 0.63/0.33 0.96/0.51 0.87/0.64 -0.64/1.11 -0.15/1.22 -0.14/0.74 0.10/0.98 0.24/0.11 0.75/0.41 0.71/0.54 0.38/0.14 0.91/0.08 0.52/0.94 E3SMv1-COUP #3 0.26/0.77 -0.65/4.16 0.68/0.45 0.81/0.34 0.98/0.91 0.87/0.62 0.17/0.71 0.81/0.50 0.13/0.67 0.77/0.49 0.02/0.10 0.84/0.30 0.72/0.51 0.46/0.13 0.89/0.09 0.65/0.83 E3SMv1-COUP #4 ----/---- -0.46/3.58 0.73/0.47 0.70/0.38 0.96/0.49 0.91/0.51 -0.01/0.86 0.38/0.99 -0.32/0.78 0.34/0.84 0.04/0.09 0.38/0.60 0.74/0.50 0.38/0.12 0.90/0.08 ----/---- E3SMv2-COUP #1 0.52/0.68 0.89/1.27 0.80/0.29 0.90/0.19 0.96/0.68 0.88/0.57 0.04/0.79 0.02/1.09 -0.59/0.91 -0.08/1.06 0.13/0.10 0.82/0.46 0.77/0.45 0.45/0.13 0.91/0.08 0.65/0.85 E3SMv2-COUP #2 0.57/0.65 0.49/2.46 0.60/0.39 0.89/0.21 0.98/0.67 0.89/0.69 -0.46/1.02 -0.05/1.15 0.53/0.50 0.09/0.95 -0.29/0.12 0.87/0.33 0.82/0.41 0.44/0.15 0.91/0.08 0.63/0.87 E3SMv2-COUP #3 0.39/0.71 0.47/2.51 0.80/0.30 0.89/0.23 0.98/0.87 0.94/0.47 0.01/0.85 0.78/0.55 -0.42/0.84 0.21/0.84 0.51/0.07 0.85/0.35 0.78/0.46 0.34/0.16 0.90/0.08 0.70/0.80 E3SMv2-COUP #4 0.69/0.60 0.89/1.49 0.83/0.43 0.92/0.29 0.96/0.72 0.85/0.68 -0.25/0.97 0.74/0.63 -0.50/0.89 0.81/0.45 0.55/0.08 0.88/0.52 0.77/0.51 0.38/0.15 0.91/0.08 0.74/0.82 E3SMv2-COUP #5 0.58/0.64 0.41/2.67 0.87/0.23 0.88/0.25 0.97/0.60 0.91/0.76 0.38/0.74 0.90/0.36 -0.70/0.93 0.68/0.55 0.02/0.14 0.55/0.54 0.81/0.46 0.43/0.14 0.91/0.08 0.70/0.81