Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Model(s) ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina SAM SAM PSA1 PSA1 PSA2 PSA2 TPDV SO SO SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (NDJFMA) (MJJASO) (NDJFMA) (MJJASO) (NDJFMA) (MJJASO) (Monthly) (NDJFMA) (MJJASO) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- OBS 2 1.00/0.06 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.00 1.00/0.00 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.05 0.99/0.09 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.02 1.00/0.01 0.99/0.04 1.00/0.05 OBS 3 0.97/0.17 0.99/0.33 0.93/0.13 0.98/0.08 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.07 0.99/0.09 1.00/0.06 0.98/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.02 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.05 0.99/0.14 OBS 4 0.99/0.10 1.00/0.05 0.94/0.09 0.97/0.09 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.07 0.98/0.10 1.00/0.06 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.02 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.05 1.00/0.11 OBS 5 0.99/0.10 1.00/0.05 0.95/0.09 0.98/0.09 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.06 1.00/0.06 0.98/0.10 1.00/0.06 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.02 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.05 1.00/0.11 OBS 6 0.97/0.20 0.99/0.39 0.91/0.14 0.97/0.14 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.06 1.00/0.06 0.98/0.10 1.00/0.06 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.02 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.05 0.99/0.15 OBS 7 0.98/0.13 0.99/0.26 0.95/0.09 0.96/0.11 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.06 1.00/0.06 0.98/0.10 1.00/0.06 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.02 0.98/0.03 0.98/0.05 0.99/0.13 OBS 8 0.97/0.17 0.99/0.33 0.93/0.11 0.97/0.09 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.06 1.00/0.06 0.98/0.09 1.00/0.05 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.02 0.98/0.03 0.98/0.04 0.99/0.13 OBS 9 0.97/0.17 0.99/0.33 0.95/0.08 0.95/0.12 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.06 1.00/0.06 0.98/0.10 1.00/0.06 0.98/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.02 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.05 0.99/0.13 OBS 10 0.99/0.11 1.00/0.05 0.94/0.11 0.97/0.10 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.07 0.98/0.10 1.00/0.06 0.99/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.02 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.05 1.00/0.12 OBS 11 0.97/0.17 0.99/0.33 0.94/0.09 0.93/0.14 1.00/0.05 1.00/0.04 1.00/0.06 1.00/0.06 0.99/0.09 1.00/0.06 0.98/0.02 1.00/0.01 1.00/0.02 0.97/0.03 0.98/0.04 0.99/0.14 CMIP6-COUP #1 0.60/0.62 0.83/1.56 0.70/0.31 0.73/0.31 0.95/0.34 0.93/0.47 0.37/0.67 0.74/0.57 0.34/0.56 0.82/0.43 0.29/0.13 0.85/0.29 0.86/0.36 0.65/0.08 0.91/0.08 0.77/0.71 CMIP6-COUP #2 0.68/0.62 0.81/1.79 0.54/0.57 0.74/0.84 0.91/0.46 0.91/0.54 0.68/0.57 0.91/0.46 -0.28/0.82 0.80/0.46 0.63/0.10 0.83/0.49 0.89/0.39 0.59/0.10 0.89/0.11 0.77/0.91 CMIP6-COUP #3 0.60/0.63 0.83/1.63 0.65/0.78 0.41/0.68 0.82/0.70 0.92/0.51 0.55/0.62 0.60/0.70 0.26/0.64 0.60/0.63 0.66/0.16 0.82/0.51 0.85/0.36 0.58/0.10 0.89/0.10 0.71/1.00 CMIP6-COUP #4 0.60/0.62 0.87/1.59 0.65/0.67 0.61/0.40 0.92/0.48 0.91/0.54 0.69/0.53 0.80/0.57 0.86/0.28 0.71/0.57 0.43/0.12 0.86/0.47 0.91/0.36 0.58/0.09 0.90/0.10 0.79/0.81 CMIP6-COUP #5 0.64/0.59 0.62/1.83 0.61/0.53 0.75/0.31 0.91/0.52 0.66/1.03 0.57/0.73 0.90/0.47 0.45/0.60 0.64/0.74 0.55/0.14 0.74/0.56 0.95/0.38 0.49/0.12 0.90/0.10 0.74/0.89 CMIP6-COUP #6 0.68/0.62 0.88/1.34 0.69/0.50 0.67/0.46 0.95/0.54 0.58/1.12 0.72/0.52 0.57/0.81 0.56/0.52 0.83/0.41 0.49/0.14 0.86/0.50 0.89/0.54 0.53/0.12 0.89/0.11 0.76/0.88 CMIP6-COUP #7 0.65/0.69 0.86/1.49 0.67/0.84 0.72/0.72 0.64/0.88 0.87/0.75 0.54/0.63 0.33/1.03 -0.63/1.00 0.27/0.96 0.68/0.13 0.82/0.61 0.90/0.59 0.55/0.12 0.90/0.11 0.66/1.19 CMIP6-COUP #8 0.54/0.60 0.25/2.43 0.64/0.66 0.47/0.72 0.92/0.41 0.94/0.47 0.75/0.49 0.79/0.61 0.46/0.48 0.69/0.60 0.63/0.13 0.78/0.45 0.86/0.50 0.54/0.10 0.90/0.09 0.73/0.92 CMIP6-COUP #9 0.42/0.64 0.63/1.66 0.20/0.45 0.76/0.29 0.92/0.40 0.89/0.60 0.71/0.44 -0.15/1.23 0.40/0.48 -0.19/1.07 0.67/0.11 0.72/0.39 0.70/0.51 0.56/0.09 0.89/0.09 0.63/0.86 CMIP6-COUP #10 0.56/0.60 0.42/2.17 0.45/0.45 0.58/0.46 0.93/0.49 0.91/0.55 0.74/0.50 0.39/0.92 -0.55/0.80 0.33/0.88 0.38/0.14 0.82/0.40 0.92/0.30 0.56/0.09 0.90/0.09 0.66/0.91 CMIP6-COUP #11 0.62/0.61 0.87/1.41 0.54/0.79 0.49/0.76 0.79/0.68 0.90/0.66 0.58/0.63 0.82/0.59 0.56/0.45 -0.56/1.18 0.57/0.16 0.85/0.49 0.92/0.43 0.52/0.10 0.89/0.11 0.70/1.03 CMIP6-COUP #12 0.57/0.63 0.88/1.41 0.61/0.59 0.62/0.82 0.87/0.51 0.64/1.06 0.74/0.51 0.66/0.71 -0.55/0.80 0.72/0.60 0.58/0.15 0.85/0.47 0.65/0.80 0.56/0.10 0.89/0.10 0.68/1.03 CMIP6-COUP #13 0.55/0.72 0.72/2.33 0.57/0.56 0.67/0.45 0.93/0.82 0.90/0.93 0.34/0.71 0.67/0.64 -0.17/0.75 0.67/0.57 0.55/0.10 0.71/0.67 0.79/0.48 0.51/0.13 0.86/0.10 0.68/0.99 CMIP6-COUP #14 0.34/0.68 0.09/2.45 0.45/0.46 0.78/0.35 0.89/0.48 0.91/0.60 0.50/0.63 0.57/0.73 -0.10/0.64 -0.50/1.18 0.46/0.10 0.47/0.50 0.72/0.48 0.46/0.11 0.87/0.11 0.55/0.92 CMIP6-COUP #15 0.56/0.67 0.82/2.15 0.50/0.68 0.69/0.40 0.93/0.49 0.91/0.74 0.67/0.50 0.07/1.05 0.32/0.55 -0.10/1.04 0.58/0.12 0.78/0.48 0.64/0.57 0.42/0.12 0.87/0.11 0.65/0.99 CMIP6-COUP #16 0.57/0.58 0.74/1.54 0.55/0.44 0.77/0.51 0.95/0.51 0.88/0.77 -0.42/0.93 0.66/0.66 -0.48/0.75 -0.62/1.24 0.75/0.07 0.67/0.44 0.69/0.51 0.45/0.11 0.85/0.12 0.58/0.94 CMIP6-COUP #17 0.55/0.60 0.77/1.38 0.60/0.44 0.78/0.30 0.96/0.38 0.89/0.61 0.45/0.62 0.11/1.02 0.12/0.63 0.69/0.54 0.73/0.10 0.85/0.30 0.80/0.42 0.36/0.12 0.86/0.11 0.71/0.80 CMIP6-COUP #18 0.62/0.58 0.80/1.31 0.54/0.51 0.74/0.57 0.95/0.72 0.94/0.56 0.62/0.57 0.71/0.68 -0.08/0.66 -0.73/1.39 0.70/0.14 0.83/0.42 0.67/0.64 0.53/0.13 0.88/0.10 0.68/0.98 CMIP6-COUP #19 0.60/0.52 0.56/1.74 0.62/0.40 0.68/0.36 0.95/0.68 0.93/0.68 0.61/0.56 -0.31/1.31 0.29/0.52 -0.22/1.14 0.45/0.11 0.82/0.35 0.84/0.38 0.41/0.12 0.85/0.11 0.64/0.89 CMIP6-COUP #20 0.64/0.52 0.48/1.85 0.62/0.42 0.56/0.59 0.90/0.67 0.90/0.78 0.58/0.55 0.66/0.64 0.47/0.46 0.56/0.64 0.66/0.12 0.84/0.30 0.83/0.38 0.43/0.12 0.86/0.11 0.71/0.82 CMIP6-COUP #21 0.57/0.68 0.85/1.23 0.63/0.55 0.83/0.62 0.95/0.74 0.93/0.66 0.52/0.59 0.28/1.03 -0.10/0.68 -0.44/1.16 0.74/0.12 0.82/0.55 0.71/0.56 0.51/0.12 0.86/0.11 0.68/1.02 CMIP6-COUP #22 0.63/0.59 0.59/1.82 0.54/0.62 0.74/0.56 0.95/0.49 0.89/0.69 0.56/0.63 0.79/0.54 0.54/0.47 0.70/0.53 0.73/0.09 0.70/0.50 0.77/0.64 0.51/0.12 0.88/0.10 0.74/0.88 CMIP6-COUP #23 0.69/0.52 0.86/1.07 0.23/0.44 0.74/0.33 0.96/0.46 0.94/0.49 0.50/0.62 0.77/0.55 -0.32/0.74 0.03/0.94 0.85/0.10 0.76/0.46 0.86/0.37 0.60/0.10 0.86/0.10 0.73/0.81 CMIP6-COUP #24 0.59/0.55 0.66/1.57 0.32/0.45 0.75/0.38 0.95/0.39 0.94/0.47 0.70/0.44 0.50/0.78 -0.26/0.73 0.21/0.84 0.71/0.08 0.84/0.31 0.72/0.49 0.54/0.11 0.87/0.10 0.69/0.80 CMIP6-COUP #25 0.60/0.58 0.78/1.34 0.23/0.45 0.75/0.36 0.96/0.76 0.92/0.48 0.66/0.53 0.66/0.69 0.61/0.40 0.52/0.66 0.79/0.16 0.77/0.38 0.75/0.49 0.58/0.11 0.86/0.10 0.74/0.81 CMIP6-COUP #26 0.59/0.55 0.80/1.31 0.29/0.41 0.69/0.39 0.95/0.54 0.88/0.70 0.55/0.59 0.61/0.76 0.47/0.48 -0.53/1.16 0.78/0.11 0.68/0.41 0.54/0.79 0.58/0.10 0.86/0.10 0.66/0.88 CMIP6-COUP #27 0.49/0.65 0.72/1.49 0.33/0.43 0.67/0.37 0.96/0.40 0.92/0.70 0.62/0.57 0.49/0.86 0.81/0.29 0.77/0.48 0.80/0.10 0.84/0.31 0.65/0.54 0.58/0.10 0.86/0.10 0.75/0.75 CMIP6-COUP #28 0.42/0.64 0.66/1.60 0.25/0.39 0.55/0.42 0.94/0.52 0.92/0.52 0.28/0.74 -0.13/1.21 -0.33/0.74 0.05/0.97 0.70/0.08 0.79/0.37 0.74/0.47 0.52/0.11 0.88/0.10 0.59/0.90 CMIP6-COUP #29 0.61/0.54 0.81/1.38 0.44/0.36 0.72/0.36 0.95/0.34 0.88/0.61 0.27/0.70 0.75/0.59 -0.26/0.71 -0.62/1.24 0.78/0.08 0.68/0.42 0.73/0.51 0.59/0.09 0.87/0.10 0.65/0.83 CMIP6-COUP #30 0.51/0.67 0.80/1.27 0.49/0.41 0.79/0.34 0.92/0.50 0.92/0.55 -0.40/1.00 0.84/0.50 -0.53/0.80 0.83/0.43 0.33/0.13 0.72/0.42 0.93/0.30 0.52/0.12 0.85/0.10 0.69/0.84 CMIP6-COUP #31 0.58/0.58 0.83/1.20 0.17/0.48 0.66/0.37 0.92/0.51 0.91/0.54 0.34/0.64 0.81/0.50 -0.19/0.69 0.53/0.67 0.64/0.11 0.81/0.33 0.82/0.39 0.55/0.10 0.86/0.10 0.69/0.79 CMIP6-COUP #32 0.51/0.59 0.76/1.37 0.13/0.52 0.66/0.37 0.92/0.63 0.93/0.71 0.40/0.63 0.72/0.61 0.25/0.59 0.74/0.51 0.40/0.11 0.66/0.47 0.76/0.46 0.54/0.11 0.87/0.10 0.68/0.83 CMIP6-COUP #33 0.61/0.52 0.75/1.42 0.63/0.32 0.68/0.31 0.92/0.39 0.91/0.52 0.82/0.35 0.72/0.65 -0.21/0.72 0.57/0.70 -0.11/0.14 0.82/0.34 0.82/0.40 0.21/0.12 0.88/0.09 0.69/0.75 CMIP6-COUP #34 -0.23/0.82 -0.14/2.53 0.63/0.32 0.68/0.31 0.95/0.33 0.92/0.49 0.36/0.70 0.79/0.53 -0.21/0.76 0.86/0.37 -0.11/0.14 0.65/0.44 0.89/0.33 0.21/0.12 0.88/0.09 0.62/0.81 CMIP6-COUP #35 0.32/0.66 0.58/1.85 0.61/0.34 0.56/0.54 0.91/0.48 0.91/0.55 -0.02/0.86 0.71/0.63 -0.38/0.82 0.75/0.49 0.36/0.11 0.84/0.31 0.90/0.29 0.39/0.12 0.88/0.10 0.65/0.84 CESM2-COUP #1 0.68/0.62 0.81/1.79 0.54/0.57 0.74/0.84 0.91/0.46 0.91/0.54 0.68/0.57 0.91/0.46 -0.28/0.82 0.80/0.46 0.63/0.10 0.83/0.49 0.89/0.39 0.59/0.10 0.89/0.11 0.77/0.91 CESM2-COUP #2 0.60/0.63 0.83/1.63 0.65/0.78 0.41/0.68 0.82/0.70 0.92/0.51 0.55/0.62 0.60/0.70 0.26/0.64 0.60/0.63 0.66/0.16 0.82/0.51 0.85/0.36 0.58/0.10 0.89/0.10 0.71/1.00 CESM2-COUP #3 0.60/0.62 0.87/1.59 0.65/0.67 0.61/0.40 0.92/0.48 0.91/0.54 0.69/0.53 0.80/0.57 0.86/0.28 0.71/0.57 0.43/0.12 0.86/0.47 0.91/0.36 0.58/0.09 0.90/0.10 0.79/0.81 CESM2-COUP #4 0.64/0.59 0.62/1.83 0.61/0.53 0.75/0.31 0.91/0.52 0.66/1.03 0.57/0.73 0.90/0.47 0.45/0.60 0.64/0.74 0.55/0.14 0.74/0.56 0.95/0.38 0.49/0.12 0.90/0.10 0.74/0.89 CESM2-COUP #5 0.68/0.62 0.88/1.34 0.69/0.50 0.67/0.46 0.95/0.54 0.58/1.12 0.72/0.52 0.57/0.81 0.56/0.52 0.83/0.41 0.49/0.14 0.86/0.50 0.89/0.54 0.53/0.12 0.89/0.11 0.76/0.88 CESM2-COUP #6 0.65/0.69 0.86/1.49 0.67/0.84 0.72/0.72 0.64/0.88 0.87/0.75 0.54/0.63 0.33/1.03 -0.63/1.00 0.27/0.96 0.68/0.13 0.82/0.61 0.90/0.59 0.55/0.12 0.90/0.11 0.66/1.19 CESM2-COUP #7 0.54/0.60 0.25/2.43 0.64/0.66 0.47/0.72 0.92/0.41 0.94/0.47 0.75/0.49 0.79/0.61 0.46/0.48 0.69/0.60 0.63/0.13 0.78/0.45 0.86/0.50 0.54/0.10 0.90/0.09 0.73/0.92 CESM2-COUP #8 0.42/0.64 0.63/1.66 0.20/0.45 0.76/0.29 0.92/0.40 0.89/0.60 0.71/0.44 -0.15/1.23 0.40/0.48 -0.19/1.07 0.67/0.11 0.72/0.39 0.70/0.51 0.56/0.09 0.89/0.09 0.63/0.86 CESM2-COUP #9 0.56/0.60 0.42/2.17 0.45/0.45 0.58/0.46 0.93/0.49 0.91/0.55 0.74/0.50 0.39/0.92 -0.55/0.80 0.33/0.88 0.38/0.14 0.82/0.40 0.92/0.30 0.56/0.09 0.90/0.09 0.66/0.91 CESM2-COUP #10 0.62/0.61 0.87/1.41 0.54/0.79 0.49/0.76 0.79/0.68 0.90/0.66 0.58/0.63 0.82/0.59 0.56/0.45 -0.56/1.18 0.57/0.16 0.85/0.49 0.92/0.43 0.52/0.10 0.89/0.11 0.70/1.03 CESM2-COUP #11 0.57/0.63 0.88/1.41 0.61/0.59 0.62/0.82 0.87/0.51 0.64/1.06 0.74/0.51 0.66/0.71 -0.55/0.80 0.72/0.60 0.58/0.15 0.85/0.47 0.65/0.80 0.56/0.10 0.89/0.10 0.68/1.03 E3SMv1-COUP #1 0.44/0.72 -0.78/3.53 0.21/0.65 0.54/0.55 0.90/0.70 0.91/0.54 0.67/0.48 -0.02/1.07 -0.17/0.68 0.26/0.84 0.62/0.13 0.67/0.41 0.59/0.60 0.39/0.15 0.86/0.10 0.49/1.06 E3SMv1-COUP #2 0.63/0.54 -0.52/2.79 0.61/0.44 0.61/0.31 0.93/0.61 0.90/0.57 0.67/0.52 0.21/1.00 -0.36/0.78 0.04/1.01 0.68/0.08 0.82/0.35 0.82/0.43 0.28/0.15 0.87/0.10 0.59/0.90 E3SMv1-COUP #3 0.45/0.61 -0.62/3.58 0.42/0.43 0.62/0.48 0.95/1.02 0.89/0.58 -0.40/0.95 0.55/0.78 -0.12/0.69 -0.65/1.29 0.47/0.14 0.83/0.32 0.65/0.55 0.37/0.15 0.85/0.10 0.47/1.07 E3SMv1-COUP #4 0.68/0.64 -0.25/2.81 0.54/0.49 0.55/0.48 0.92/0.62 0.91/0.52 0.77/0.43 -0.13/1.33 0.24/0.57 -0.15/1.11 0.57/0.13 0.55/0.53 0.76/0.48 0.35/0.14 0.86/0.10 0.57/1.00 E3SMv2-COUP #1 0.48/0.67 0.74/1.53 0.69/0.36 0.81/0.27 0.92/0.82 0.88/0.61 0.55/0.55 0.41/0.84 0.53/0.48 0.23/0.88 0.76/0.11 0.77/0.49 0.77/0.45 0.46/0.14 0.87/0.10 0.70/0.84 E3SMv2-COUP #2 0.52/0.64 0.64/1.69 0.29/0.35 0.85/0.27 0.94/0.81 0.93/0.53 0.72/0.46 0.13/1.06 0.45/0.51 0.16/0.91 0.62/0.10 0.85/0.35 0.81/0.42 0.38/0.17 0.85/0.10 0.69/0.83 E3SMv2-COUP #3 0.51/0.59 0.66/1.63 0.51/0.35 0.72/0.31 0.94/1.00 0.96/0.36 0.65/0.52 0.69/0.67 0.50/0.50 -0.20/1.03 0.73/0.09 0.83/0.37 0.81/0.43 0.23/0.17 0.86/0.10 0.71/0.82 E3SMv2-COUP #4 0.65/0.61 0.81/1.62 0.62/0.59 0.74/0.44 0.92/0.86 0.88/0.62 0.76/0.44 0.47/0.89 0.48/0.50 -0.57/1.27 0.72/0.12 0.82/0.56 0.69/0.58 0.28/0.17 0.86/0.10 0.68/0.98 E3SMv2-COUP #5 0.57/0.60 0.41/2.20 0.66/0.35 0.86/0.31 0.93/0.72 0.90/0.69 0.80/0.42 0.83/0.47 0.61/0.45 0.76/0.47 0.72/0.15 0.71/0.44 0.78/0.48 0.34/0.16 0.86/0.10 0.76/0.79 E3SMv2-AMIP #1 0.69/0.50 0.82/1.23 0.82/0.17 0.93/0.14 0.92/0.42 0.98/0.48 0.74/0.48 0.70/0.68 -0.53/0.89 -0.65/1.37 0.98/0.02 0.91/0.26 0.84/0.40 0.90/0.05 0.91/0.09 0.81/0.69 E3SMv2-AMIP #2 0.72/0.48 0.65/1.77 0.82/0.17 0.93/0.14 0.92/0.43 0.92/0.57 0.72/0.48 0.35/1.05 -0.65/0.92 0.44/0.81 0.98/0.02 0.85/0.30 0.87/0.35 0.89/0.05 0.89/0.09 0.80/0.69 E3SMv2-AMIP #3 0.60/0.57 -0.05/3.20 0.82/0.17 0.93/0.14 0.96/0.59 0.96/0.40 0.66/0.56 0.58/0.76 0.31/0.61 0.38/0.76 0.98/0.02 0.42/0.59 0.86/0.35 0.90/0.05 0.89/0.10 0.80/0.72